Examining NFL betting percentages , also known as public betting trends, can be an extremely useful tool for sports bettors. Before placing a wager, taking a few minutes to analyze the betting percentages on a game can provide key insights that may help you make a more informed betting decision. Here are some of the main reasons why checking the betting percentages is an important part of a solid betting strategy:
- It shows where the public money is going. The betting percentages indicate what side the majority of bettors are supporting in a game. If 80% of bets are on one team, it means most casual bettors like that side. This “public” team is sometimes referred to as the “popular” side. Knowing where the public money is going allows you to spot potential betting value on the unpopular team.
- It helps identify potential betting value. When the public loads up heavily on one side, it can skew the betting odds and lines. This creates betting value on the other team that has received less public action. By fading the public in spots where they are overwhelmingly supporting one side, you increase your chances of getting the best of the number.
- Sharp action can be revealed. Not all betting action is from the average public bettor. Some NFL bets come from professional bettors and betting syndicates, referred to as “sharps”. Watching line movements can indicate which side the sharps are betting. If a line moves despite heavy public action on the other side, it signals that respected money is backing the unpopular team.
- Prime spots for contrarian betting. When the public is strongly backing one side of a game, it presents prime spots to fade the public and bet the contrarian side. The public tends to bet popular teams, often leading to inflated spreads. Going contrarian works well when public bias creates numbers offering too much value on the other team.
- Helps avoid betting on “trap” lines. If one team is receiving an overwhelming majority of bets, it could be a potential trap that oddsmakers have set with a line that looks too enticing. The lopsided action tempts people to bet the public favorite, even when underlying metrics suggest the line is inflated. Checking the percentages helps spot these trap lines.
- Reveals overvalued & undervalued teams. Teams that consistently receive heavy public betting action tend to become overvalued by the betting market. Their lines are inflated. On the flip side, teams the public consistently fades become undervalued. Analyzing betting percentages over a season allows you to spot teams the public consistently overrates and underrates.
- Track line movements over the week. Betting percentages change over the course of a week leading up to a game. Monitoring the percentages daily shows which teams are taking more action as kickoff approaches. Late line moves towards the end of the week can signal sharp betting.
- Provides information to help assess risk. The betting percentages give you a sense of how lopsided the action is on a game. If 70% of bets are on one team, it is riskier to bet that popular side than if the action is more split. This helps gauge the risk versus reward of betting certain sides.
- See where money is flowing in other markets. Betting percentage data is available not just for the point spread, but also for alternate lines, prop bets, live betting, and more. Seeing where the money is flowing in those markets can also help locate betting value.
- It’s free information! Bookmakers publicly provide betting percentages on each game and update them constantly. It costs nothing to check them and they can inform your betting analysis and decisions. There is no reason not to take a few minutes to examine the percentages before betting on NFL games.
